We believe transparency about risk builds more investor trust than optimism. This page documents our top risks, mitigations, and residual exposure — along with the governance structures we use to monitor them.
Named risks plotted by their assessed residual exposure after mitigations. Pre-mitigation positions are higher — see the register below.
| ID | Risk | Category | Pre-mitigation | Mitigations | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Apple / Google platform policy change — app review rejection or payment rule change | Strategic | High | PWA Web app as parallel primary channel. Aura currency structured as token system, not regulated currency. Legal review pre-launch. | Medium |
| T1 | LLM provider outage or pricing change — Google Gemini unavailable or too costly | Technology | High | Dual provider abstraction shipped: Gemini primary, OpenAI-compatible fallback. Runtime switch, no redeployment. Interpretation engine reduces LLM dependency for common queries. | Medium |
| P1 | Key-person dependency — founder is primary engineer and product owner | People | High | Sr Mobile Engineer is Q1 hire #1. Full technical documentation (9,000+ line spec, ASTROHITCH_CODEBASE_REFERENCE). Lead Engineer is operational fallback. Codebase is zero-warning, well-structured. | Medium |
| T3 | Aura wallet atomicity failure — double-spend or balance desync under network conditions | Technology | Medium | Firestore transactions for all wallet mutations. Offline persistence with pending-write handling. Phase 0 hardening task: atomic wallet refactor + test suite. | Low |
| R1 | AI-generated harmful content — mental health, medical, or legal harm claim | Regulatory | High | Safety system prompts for sensitive topics. Disclaimers on all AI outputs ("for entertainment and self-reflection"). AI is not a licensed professional disclaimer live. Content moderation review pre-launch. | Medium |
| M1 | CAC creep — paid acquisition costs exceed payback threshold, burning runway | Market | Medium | Hard rule: pause all paid if CAC payback > 18 months. Organic flywheel (AstroSync share cards, creator program) de-risks paid dependency. CAC monitored monthly. | Low |
| C1 | GDPR / data privacy non-compliance — EU or UK enforcement action | Compliance | Medium | Account deletion flow shipping Phase 0. Data minimisation policy. GDPR counsel engaged at seed close. Privacy-first data architecture (no unnecessary PII retention). | Low |
| F1 | Revenue ramp slower than model — D30 retention below 12% threshold | Financial | Medium | Downside scenario modelled at −30% (Series A still achievable at M22). Hiring deferred if D7 < 20%. Bridge round planned if needed at M18. Marketing paused; burn reduced to ~$55k/mo minimum. | Low |
| Monthly | Investor update email: MRR, installs, burn, KPIs, ask |
| Quarterly | Board call: strategy review, hiring, scenario re-plan |
| Annually | Audited financials (post-Series A), 409A valuation |
| Series A prep | M18–20: data room refresh, fractional CFO onboarded |